Argentina’s unlikely Bitcoin prince is an angsty, ex-rocker who wants the presidency in 2023
Economist Javier Milei wants to dollarize - possibly even bitcoinize - the Argentine economy. That means taking the Central Bank head on.
A libertarian politician named Javier Milei from Argentina’s congress has declared that he will run for the presidency in 2023. He is currently the favorite to beat, and he is a staunch advocate of replacing the inflationary peso with a hard money alternative like the dollar or possibly even bitcoin. In a country with strict capital controls and annual inflation at 55%, crypto is already an alternative savings vehicle and means to move money in and out of the country.
Who is Javier Milei? Milei, 51, is an economist from Buenos Aires. The son of a bus driver, he sang in a Rolling Stones cover band before leaping into finance. He told local Argentine media that his father abused him growing up. His parents, he says, are “dead” to him.
After a career as an economist, he climbed into politics. In 2021, he was elected as a lawmaker and served as a representative (Diputado) in Argentina’s lower house of congress.
What does he stand for? Milei is pro-open carry and wants to abolish abortion in Argentina. Milei thinks both the Kirchneristas and followers of former, center-right president Mauricio Macri are bloating the state. He wants to lower taxes and cut red tape.
What is his posture on crypto & Bitcoin? On economic policy, Milei sides with the Austrian school. That is part of the reason he is interested in bitcoinization as part of the solution to Argentina’s high rates of inflation and macroeconomic instability.
Could he win? Maybe. It’s still early days and Argentina is just getting used to its pre-candidates. While Milei is highly visible amongst voters (9 of 10 recognize him), he’s not necessarily liked by the majority. Four out of the nine who recognize him view him favorably. The other five view him unfavorably.
If he wants a chance at success, Milei’s heady economics would need to be simplified for the average voter. While his provocative style gets him recognition, he will probably need to moderate parts of his eccentric personality to reach voters on the fence with other alternatives.
A few scenarios… if he wins: Of course, Milei could lose and end up a blip on the radar this electoral cycle, but let’s assume he stays the favorite - and wins.
One winning scenario is that Milei succeeds in delivering on his promise to cure inflation by a series of radical economic reforms pushed through a congress where his coalition holds a majority. He would kill the Argentine peso and reduce the central bank’s power with dollarization. Monetary policy in Argentina is solved and capital controls get lifted. That, of course, could pave the way for bitcoin adoption and crypto companies to innovate in Latin America’s third-largest economy.
It’s probably not going to look like that. A more likely scenario is that Milei meets severe obstacles to his dream of dollarization. His Trump-like populism and eccentric personality will likely clash with institutions - in particular the Central Bank and Miguel Pesce, its current chief. Pesce is a crypto skeptic.
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Peronists would put up a hell of a fight. He would face significant opposition from sectors of Argentine society that rely heavily on state employment and state subsidies. The IMF, too, would likely show resistance to Milei’s economic reforms if they fear his plan challenges the debt pay-back policy tied to their recent aid package. If Mauricio Macri faced trouble with a much more moderate reform agenda, then it’s hard to imagine Milei enjoying a cakewalk.
Young Argentines are increasingly breaking with both the left and the right to join Milei’s third way. That brings up another caveat. While Argentines might find his alternative economic reform agenda attractive, he is a divisive personality on law and order and women’s rights. In a country where social issues and nationalism sometimes matter more than economic rationale, Milei might find himself falling in the polls to a more moderate candidate - or forced to moderate himself once he gets elected.
If he falls out of favor, it will be important to see if Milei is well-behaved enough to get tapped as an economic advisor. His ideas, instead of his outrageous personality, might be what sets out a clear roadmap for crypto policy in Argentina.